'Hard task'

Meteorologists have come up with two possible scenarios for the June
to August months of the 2020 Wet/Hurricane Season in the Caribbean
region and are predicting a significant ease in the drought conditions
after August.

That’s according to Climatologist with the Caribbean Institute for
Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck, who noted
that the forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season suggests that
it will be an active one.

Speaking yesterday during the virtual Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean
Climate Outlook Forum, he said that the first prediction is that the
region will have wetter than usual June to August period, with high
flood potential and strong tropical cyclone activity. He said on the
positive side, such climatic conditions would temper the heat stress
under the heat season and promote progressive drought relief.
On the other hand, he said the second scenario suggests that it will
not be particularly wet and predicts frequent heat stress and slow
drought relief. The positive aspect of this scenario, the
climatologist said, is that it would result in tempered flood
potential and tropical cyclone activity by late August.

“It was a very hard task for meteorologists who met on Monday morning
to discuss and agree on the forecast; it was a hard task to come up
with just one scenario... Now the number one scenario that you see –
if you ask my gut feeling – this is the more likely one; the second
scenario is perhaps less likely. When I say ‘more likely’, I mean more
likely at any spot in the Caribbean, but also more likely for the
Caribbean as a whole. Nevertheless, keep in mind also that when I say
‘less likely’, it can always be that much of the region is facing one
scenario while your particular country or some smaller location is
experiencing the other,” Van Meerbeeck explained.

The CIMH official, revealing that predictions for September and
October this year were easier to project, explained that throughout
the region, they anticipate there will be hot and humid weather with
heat stress to peak during frequent heat waves. Additionally, they
also expect a very wet period with strong tropical cyclone activity,
featuring high flood potential and an easing of the long-term drought
conditions.

“That last particular thing is something I want you to bear in mind –
that the long-term drought, which affects ground-water and the very,
very large reservoirs and very large rivers in the region, that
long-term drought would start easing more effectively after August,”
he stated.

He went on to say that by November, the conditions are projected to be
wet, with high flood potential and it is expected to also be
progressively cooler.

“All in all what this means is that we have to prepare for drought, in
particular in the first two months. We also need to prepare for
tropical cyclones; as you know, one tropical cyclone may be the
difference between an OK year and a terrible year in your country.
We need to prepare for floods, which are quite likely and we need to
prepare for heat stress, which this year is expected to be quite
intense,” he stated.