DOCTOR’S WARNING

WITH Barbados recording 342 new COVID 19 cases on Monday, there is a warning that this number represents recorded cases only and that the number of cases in the country could be twice or even three times higher.

The words of caution came from Dr. Natasha Sobers-Grannum, lecturer in Public Health and Epidemiology at the UWI, during a press conference yesterday morning, where she suggested that the worst case scenario projected by the UWI has moved from 500 cases daily to as much as 700-800 cases before levelling off.

She stressed that putting these worst-case estimates in the public is a preventative measure, so that efforts can be taken to stop the virus from reaching that point. She also explained the numbers may not actually reach the 800 mark since they may go unreported.

The lecturer reiterated that reported cases tend to underestimate what is happening in the communities.

Showing models dating back to January with the Alpha variant, Dr Sobers-Grannum noted that there was very little activity when compared with the Delta variant in September.

She explained that the modelling being carried out is not just based on vaccinations. “What we are doing is we are estimating the public health measures will be put in place and our public health measures will be followed, noting that the graph is still rising, But we are almost at peak. So we should change the level off in about a week or so.”

She noted that the levelling down of numbers to approximately 25 persons per 100 000 could come within a month.

Weighing in on the calls for more restrictions on movement in Barbados to curb the spread of COVID-19, Dr. Sobers-Grannum suggested that these measures would still not have an effect for another 20 days.

“You can have no movement days, but our numbers are quite high and what the data has shown as well is that restrictions are best in the early parts of the outbreak and I am really uncertain as to how much impact it will have at this stage. It will have some impact, but it won’t have the type of impact that it would have maybe four weeks ago.”

She stressed the importance of mask wearing and social distancing but noted that the long term strategy is vaccination to reduce hospitalisations and death.

The lecturer noted that in the models with one person possibly infecting up to three or four people, the ability to contact trace is even more difficult at this time.

“For every one case, you actually have to contact trace 20 people... Not everybody is going to get the virus, but they still contact tracing them. So I would imagine that 350 cases, it must be very difficult for the team, and I’m not on the ground, to contact trace an additional 20 people coming out of that 350. 

“And remember what I said as long as that 350 represents an underestimate. It is a reported case only. So it’s an underestimate of what is really happening in the community,” she said.