FIRST QUARTER REVIEW OF ECONOMY THIS WEEK

THE 2022 first quarter review of Barbados economy will be held on Wednesday. That’s when Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados, Cleviston Haynes, will present data on the performance of the economy and make economic projections for the remainder of the year.
The review is eagerly awaited as it will indicate by how much the economy grew in the first three months of this year, and the level of price increases which occurred during the review period, January to March.
An inflow of several British visitors for the one day cricket match and a subsequent Test match between England and the West Indies at Kensington Oval, gave a boost to long stay visitor arrivals. Those arrivals, according to projections by the Bank, gave a boost to the all important tourism sector.
One of the benefits from the 5 000-odd UK visitors is visitor spend which should result in tourism expenditure outpacing the $650 million in the same three months last year, and the $1.4 billion during the same quarter in 2020.
In the first quarter of last year the economy contracted by almost 20 per cent. Haynes said then that the COVID-19 pandemic continued to subdue the performance of the economy.
“During the first quarter (2021) of the year, the prevalence of several more contagious strains of the virus and spikes in COVID- 19 cases, both locally and in key source markets, prompted renewed shut downs and international travel restrictions,” he reported at the time.
However, the situation stabilised during the rest of that year to the point that the economy recovered ending 2021 with a growth rate of 1.4 per cent.
While economic growth will be expected, the extent of rising consumer and producer prices will be very much on the minds of Barbadians and what such price hikes hold for the future. There was a slowdown in inflation from 5.2 per cent in 2020, to 2.0 per cent this time a year ago, but projections are that this data will show a spike. Food prices which accounted for 30 per cent of the basket of that measures domestic inflation, were up 7.7 per cent partly because of higher charges for fruits and vegetables, the Governor told the media at the time. The review will also zero in on Government’s fiscal position for the end of the March 31, financial year and the likely impact of the Budgetary measures on the economy forward.