Active season expected

THE 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season is expected to be an active one and
the prediction is that the Caribbean will likely see a fair bit of
activity.

So says Climatologist with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and
Hydrology (CIMH), Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck. He was speaking earlier
this week during the virtual Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate
Outlook Forum, as he indicated that there is a “strong consensus”,
among the various entities which provide forecasts for the season,
that it will be active. Showing data from the Colorado State
University (CSU), Tropical Storm Risk, Weather Channel and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, he revealed that the
predictions are that there will be between 13 to 19 named storms this
year, with six to 10 becoming hurricanes, and three to six of them
intense hurricanes.

“Another way of expressing how active, is looking at the accumulated
power of the winds during the storms of the hurricane season. If the
median, which is basically dividing the 50 per cent weakest years from
the 50 per cent strongest years, if that median is at 100, anything
above that means an active season. Bear in mind this median is
calculated over a period of 1981 to 2010, however since 1995 there has
been an uptick in hurricane season activity. So these kinds of numbers
are on the active side. How active it will be? We need to look at
updates coming up in the coming months from these agencies,” he
stated.

Reflecting more on the forecast from CSU, Van Meerbeeck indicated that
in respect of the Caribbean, historically the average probability for
major hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean is approximately 42
per cent and all hurricanes is 75 per cent, but this year the
predictions are higher in both respects. According to the
climatologist, the prediction is this year that there is a 58 per cent
probability for at least one major hurricane and an 85 per cent
probability of at least one hurricane.

He went further, indicating that Tropical Storm Risk says there is the
possibility of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and three major
hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

“Now we all know that only one hurricane is enough to make the
difference between a devastating year for an economy [and] for the
lives of people in a country and a regular year. So the whole point of
such forecasts is not to say with absolute certainty how many we are
going to expect through the Caribbean, or through the Atlantic as a
whole, but this is really to draw to our attention that if there are
years in which we should pay even more attention to our weather
forecasts all through the hurricane season, this is one year to do
that,” he contended. (JRT)