Looking at voter turnout

I have always mentioned that I am a student of History and Politics.

To that end, I look at trends in politics and the messages which it is sending to those who choose to adhere to and follow where the information leads.

The historic clean sweep in the 2018 General Elections by the incumbent Barbados Labour Party (BLP) can be viewed as a unique experience in Barbadian electoral history or as a lesson to other political establishments to look at the lead-up to the election and what contributed to the outcome.

To look back, we can look to the most recent results in the Caribbean. With the notable exception of Guyana, incumbents have held on in the most recent COVID-19 influenced elections in the region. In St. Kitts and Nevis, the incumbent party was able to convince people to give them a second term and did so in convincing fashion.

Then Trinidad and Tobago recently held elections and the incumbent party held off a spirited challenge from the Opposition to retain power and the composition of the Parliament in much the same way as it was prior to the election. More people voted for the Opposition, yet the Government held on to power.

Jamaica’s election happened at the start of September 2020, yet the incumbent routed the Opposition, despite COVID-19 restrictions and an economy which was stagnant. Prime Minister Andrew Holness was clearly the preferred choice and his team remained engaged in their consistencies, but they also benefited from their supporters being passionate enough to vote while the Opposition numbers declined.

So the power of incumbency post-2018 has lessons, in some ways. What does it say for democracy, and the need for a strong Opposition to challenge Government decisions?

Have we looked at the issue of voter apathy and the relationship which it may have to the future of election results going forward? Take Barbados – much has been made of the reality or perception that the media has been soft on this Administration. Whenever I hear this refrain, I tend to smile and point to instances, within this space related to how I maintain that even if journalists genuinely like a person or politician, it cannot prevent them from being critical, in a constructive way, related to their professional activities and actions in office.

The future of electoral politics will have to be fought on a new strategic platform. The days of the normal rallies solely being used to harness support have been replaced by targeted information, which is geared towards a constant interaction with a cadre or number of voters. Some voters will continue to support a candidate despite all other information.

So the constant stream of content from either candidate or incumbent representative will suffice for a lack of performance. That is why no matter the overall performance of administrations, individual support would remain high, which inculcates and emboldens politicians to continue to act with a level of comfort.

That ties into the reality of the lowest percentage wise turnout in the history of electoral politics in 2018. Despite the 30-nil result, turnout, according to the Caribbean Elections website, represented some 60 per cent of the voting public actually taking part in the poll, with 40 per cent not voting, which is the highest number to date, and should be a cause for concern. That 60 per cent voting percentage is act-ually marginally worse than what obtained in 1994.

Conventional thinking is that the 25 per cent swing away from the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) in 2018, would not normally remain the case and a more competitive election might be on the cards whenever that is called, but that requires the DLP to be more engaged and visible in the country.

The key conclusion, and this is not an exhaustive list, is that one party (the successful one) engaged with its targeted electorate and earned their trust and support. Social media platforms, an outreach within media and across media, included Facebook and Instagram, events which were designed to embrace, entertain and inform voters, helped in a battle for hearts, souls and minds.

The focus has turned to St. George North and the prognosticators have started their expected diatribe. Two new major party candidates have been identified to contest the election. Senator Toni Moore for the ruling BLP will face Floyd Reifer of the DLP in the November 11 by-election.

This election will be the first for this country in the COVID-19 period. It will be the first time that a potentially competitive election, since 2008, takes place in St. George North, which has been represented by Gline Clarke since 1994. Lest we forget that despite its proximity to the BLP St. Thomas stronghold, the St. George North seat was represented for a period by the DLP.

The Prime Minister, in a statement/press conference on October 2, in announcing the date for the poll, has made the fight a national one. The insistence on debates which have been non-existent in the last three General Elections and even the 2011 St. John by-election, have now miraculously re-appeared as one of the candidates is a fixture behind a lectern.

I am watching this proposed move very carefully. Both candidates are national figures for different reasons and the appeals are different, and the overarching reality of a tough economy has been added to the intrigue of the fight.

The coronation which some seem to suggest is premature, let the campaign play out! The voters as always will make the determination and turnout will depend on enthusiasm for or against a party or candidate.

Perceptions are only successful if the information is unchallenged. Our traditional elections have changed and they will not return to what we expected, especially post-2018.

The battle for the next General Elections has long started.